BRSL
Brightstar Lottery
$11.20
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.7% below fair value
You pay
$11.20
Bear
$18.16
Fair
$22.70
Bull
$27.24
Bear
$18.16
+62.1%
$1.09 × 18x P/E
Fair
$22.70
+102.7%
$1.09 × 22x P/E
Bull
$27.24
+143.2%
$1.09 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.40 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.70 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $14.76 (below our primary estimate by 40%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.40 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 59% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples