BRSL
Brightstar Lottery PLC
$10.74
Distressed or Transitioning
75%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 237.3% above fair value
You pay
$10.74
Bear
$2.12
Fair
$3.18
Bull
$4.46
Bear
$2.12
-80.2%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$3.18
-70.4%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$4.46
-58.5%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
522.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.32 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.18 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($15.24) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.32 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case