AlphaMadera

BRSL Brightstar Lottery PLC

$9.84

Stable Earnings Power 40%

P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 43.2% below fair value

You pay $9.84

Bear $13.86

Fair $17.32

Bull $20.79

Bear $13.86 +40.9% $0.77 × 18x P/E

Fair $17.32 +76.1% $0.77 × 22x P/E

Bull $20.79 +111.3% $0.77 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

22.5x

Adjusted EPS

0.77$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 12.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (6 analysts) $15.27

Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.77, the base-case value is $17.32 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.32.

Warnings

⚠ This stock is 44% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples