BROS
Dutch Bros Inc.
$38.05
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.7% below fair value
You pay
$38.05
Bear
$39.14
Fair
$75.57
Bull
$121.03
Bear
$39.14
+2.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$75.57
+98.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$121.03
+218.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
21.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.7%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$70.62
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $75.57 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 15% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions