BRKR
Bruker Corporation
$58.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 186.5% above fair value
You pay
$58.23
Bear
$8.34
Fair
$20.33
Bull
$31.62
Bear
$8.34
-85.7%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$20.33
-65.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$31.62
-45.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
73.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.2%
vs 8.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.17 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.33 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $52.17 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions