BRKR
Bruker Corporation
$45.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 142.7% above fair value
You pay
$45.69
Bear
$7.45
Fair
$18.83
Bull
$29.23
Bear
$7.45
-83.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.83
-58.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$29.23
-36.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
59.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.13 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.13 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 89% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions