BRKR
Bruker Corporation
$58.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2757.6% above fair value
You pay
$58.84
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$2.06
Bull
$4.91
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.06
-96.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.91
-91.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
100.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
30.6%
vs 8.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$67.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.06 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $67.00 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions