BRBR
BellRing Brands, Inc.
$10.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.2% below fair value
You pay
$10.45
Bear
$23.35
Fair
$24.97
Bull
$27.80
Bear
$23.35
+123.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.97
+139.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$27.80
+166.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
7.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.3%
vs 3.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$13.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
89%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.97 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.20 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 89% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions