BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
$147.39
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.5% below fair value
You pay
$147.39
Bear
$117.00
Fair
$157.65
Bull
$195.87
Bear
$117.00
-20.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$157.65
+7.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$195.87
+32.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
19.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 8.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $210.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $157.65 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $210.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions