BOX
Box, Inc.
$34.49
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.0% above fair value
You pay
$34.49
Bear
$16.67
Fair
$24.99
Bull
$33.49
Bear
$16.67
-51.7%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$24.99
-27.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$33.49
-2.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
28.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.6%
vs 11.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$37.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.99 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.25 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions