BOX
Box, Inc.
$32.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.6% above fair value
You pay
$32.44
Bear
$15.93
Fair
$23.24
Bull
$30.54
Bear
$15.93
-50.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$23.24
-28.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$30.54
-5.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
26.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.9%
vs 10.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $23.24 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 231% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions