BORR Borr Drilling Limited
$5.52
Oil & Gas E&P 85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 0.0% below fair value

You pay $5.52
Bear $0.00
Fair $0.00
Bull $2.09
Bear $0.00 -100.0% FCF $89M × 8x
Fair $0.00 -100.0% FCF $127M × 11x
Bull $2.09 -62.1% FCF $166M × 14x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.3x

Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $0.00 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $2.09 (bull).

Warnings

Debt per share ($6.75) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential