BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
$4.78
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 55.2% above fair value
You pay
$4.78
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$3.08
Bull
$8.86
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
FCF $173M × 8x
Fair
$3.08
-35.5%
FCF $247M × 11x
Bull
$8.86
+85.4%
FCF $321M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.08 per share. Range: $0.00 (bear) to $8.86 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($5.75) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -100%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential