BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$121.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 87.9% above fair value
You pay
$121.72
Bear
$38.89
Fair
$64.78
Bull
$91.68
Bear
$38.89
-68.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$64.78
-46.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$91.68
-24.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
37.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.4%
vs 12.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$201.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
68%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $201.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 68% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions