BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$155.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.4% above fair value
You pay
$155.70
Bear
$62.85
Fair
$104.91
Bull
$148.60
Bear
$62.85
-59.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$104.91
-32.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$148.60
-4.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
46.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.4%
vs 12.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $228.25 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $228.25 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions