BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$154.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.5% above fair value
You pay
$154.65
Bear
$63.22
Fair
$105.53
Bull
$149.48
Bear
$63.22
-59.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$105.53
-31.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$149.48
-3.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
46.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $230.71 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $230.71 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions