BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$148.78
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 129.7% above fair value
You pay
$148.78
Bear
$38.89
Fair
$64.78
Bull
$91.68
Bear
$38.89
-73.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$64.78
-56.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$91.68
-38.4%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
44.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.7%
vs 12.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$217.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $217.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions