BOOM
DMC Global Inc.
$6.90
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.0% below fair value
You pay
$6.90
Bear
$8.26
Fair
$16.44
Bull
$26.73
Bear
$8.26
+19.7%
FCF $29M × 10x
Fair
$16.44
+138.3%
FCF $37M × 13x
Bull
$26.73
+287.3%
FCF $45M × 16x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.44 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($4.43) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 125% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential