BOOM
DMC Global Inc.
$6.16
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.2% below fair value
You pay
$6.16
Bear
$25.92
Fair
$52.02
Bull
$85.82
Bear
$25.92
+320.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$52.02
+744.4%
22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$85.82
+1293.2%
28% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
6.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-5.2%
vs 21.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.02 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $8.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 683% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions