BOKF
BOK Financial Corporation
$137.48
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.3% above fair value
You pay
$137.48
Bear
$84.71
Fair
$135.73
Bull
$166.34
Bear
$84.71
-38.4%
ROTCE 9.0% → 1.06x TBV
Fair
$135.73
-1.3%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.70x TBV
Bull
$166.34
+21.0%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.09x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.73x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$150.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.70x on $79.64 tangible book, implying $135.73 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.71.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $50.71 (63% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly