BOKF
BOK Financial Corporation
$138.45
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.0% above fair value
You pay
$138.45
Bear
$84.73
Fair
$135.75
Bull
$166.37
Bear
$84.73
-38.8%
ROTCE 9.0% → 1.06x TBV
Fair
$135.75
-1.9%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.70x TBV
Bull
$166.37
+20.2%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.09x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.74x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $135.83 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $135.75 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $44.92 (67% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly