BOKF
BOK Financial Corporation
$124.50
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.5% below fair value
You pay
$124.50
Bear
$82.19
Fair
$131.69
Bull
$161.39
Bear
$82.19
-34.0%
ROTCE 9.0% → 1.03x TBV
Fair
$131.69
+5.8%
ROTCE 11.9% → 1.65x TBV
Bull
$161.39
+29.6%
ROTCE 13.7% → 2.03x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
8.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (11.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.56x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$145.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
With ROTCE of 11.9% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.65x on $79.64 tangible book, implying $131.69 per share. DDM cross-check: $49.34.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $49.34 (63% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly