BNTX
BioNTech SE
$92.45
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.8% below fair value
You pay
$92.45
Bear
$102.86
Fair
$167.39
Bull
$218.62
Bear
$102.86
+11.3%
18% rev growth, 17% terminal margin
Fair
$167.39
+81.1%
30% rev growth, 23% terminal margin
Bull
$218.62
+136.5%
35% rev growth, 26% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 23%
Terminal Value % of EV
64%
Implied Market Multiple
2.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $130.25 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $167.39 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 78% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $130.25 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1392 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep