BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
$20.40
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.6% below fair value
You pay
$20.40
Bear
$18.35
Fair
$22.09
Bull
$25.84
Bear
$18.35
-10.1%
$1.39 FFO × 14x
Fair
$22.09
+8.3%
$1.39 FFO × 17x
Bull
$25.84
+26.6%
$1.39 FFO × 20x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.39) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.40 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.09 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify