BNL
Broadstone Net Lease, Inc.
$18.15
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.5% below fair value
You pay
$18.15
Bear
$18.26
Fair
$21.99
Bull
$25.72
Bear
$18.26
+0.6%
$1.37 FFO × 14x
Fair
$21.99
+21.2%
$1.37 FFO × 17x
Bull
$25.72
+41.7%
$1.37 FFO × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.37) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$24.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
At $1.37 FFO/share with a 17x diversified REIT multiple, the base-case value is $21.99 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $19.04.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify