BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
$58.81
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 58.9% below fair value
You pay
$58.81
Bear
$97.21
Fair
$143.10
Bull
$189.65
Bear
$97.21
+65.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$143.10
+143.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$189.65
+222.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.2%
vs 11.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$68.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
110%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $143.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $68.20 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 110% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions