BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
$56.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
65%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.6% below fair value
You pay
$56.70
Bear
$75.12
Fair
$114.72
Bull
$155.86
Bear
$75.12
+32.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$114.72
+102.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$155.86
+174.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
12.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.3%
vs 12.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.60 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $114.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $62.60 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions