BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
$54.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.6% below fair value
You pay
$54.09
Bear
$62.02
Fair
$91.13
Bull
$122.55
Bear
$62.02
+14.7%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$91.13
+68.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$122.55
+126.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.93 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $91.13 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions