BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
$62.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 31.3% below fair value
You pay
$62.07
Bear
$61.50
Fair
$90.37
Bull
$121.53
Bear
$61.50
-0.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$90.37
+45.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$121.53
+95.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.2%
vs 13.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.40 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.37 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions