BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
$55.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.7% below fair value
You pay
$55.86
Bear
$63.04
Fair
$92.66
Bull
$124.64
Bear
$63.04
+12.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$92.66
+65.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$124.64
+123.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.5%
vs 13.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$90.94
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $92.66 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 52% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions