BMRC
Bank of Marin Bancorp
$28.92
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.0% below fair value
You pay
$28.92
Bear
$24.24
Fair
$37.55
Bull
$45.54
Bear
$24.24
-16.2%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.33x TBV
Fair
$37.55
+29.8%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.06x TBV
Bull
$45.54
+57.5%
ROTCE 15.6% → 2.49x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.46x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.25 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.55 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.87 (68% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.25 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly