BMRC
Bank of Marin Bancorp
$26.36
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.6% below fair value
You pay
$26.36
Bear
$26.02
Fair
$40.31
Bull
$48.88
Bear
$26.02
-1.3%
ROTCE 10.2% → 1.32x TBV
Fair
$40.31
+52.9%
ROTCE 13.6% → 2.04x TBV
Bull
$48.88
+85.5%
ROTCE 15.6% → 2.47x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.33x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.04x on $19.76 tangible book, implying $40.31 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.46.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.46 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 30% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly