BMI
Badger Meter, Inc.
$126.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.2% above fair value
You pay
$126.88
Bear
$96.25
Fair
$125.37
Bull
$153.68
Bear
$96.25
-24.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$125.37
-1.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$153.68
+21.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.8%
vs 9.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$152.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $125.37 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions