BMI
Badger Meter, Inc.
$135.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.2% above fair value
You pay
$135.61
Bear
$96.25
Fair
$125.37
Bull
$153.68
Bear
$96.25
-29.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$125.37
-7.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$153.68
+13.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
22.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.7%
vs 9.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$153.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $125.37 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions