BMA
Banco Macro S.A.
$65.71
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 51.4% above fair value
You pay
$65.71
Bear
$16.23
Fair
$43.39
Bull
$60.54
Bear
$16.23
-75.3%
ROTCE 4.8% → 0.30x TBV
Fair
$43.39
-34.0%
ROTCE 6.4% → 0.80x TBV
Bull
$60.54
-7.9%
ROTCE 7.4% → 1.12x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
6.4%
7.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (6.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.21x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
51%
Summary
With ROTCE of 6.4% vs. 7.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.80x on $54.10 tangible book, implying $43.39 per share. DDM cross-check: $31.53.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (6.4%) is below the minimum investors require (7.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $31.53 (27% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $88.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from ARS into USD using USDARS at 0.0007 USD per ARS.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly