BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc.
$51.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.3% below fair value
You pay
$51.65
Bear
$64.95
Fair
$78.59
Bull
$90.60
Bear
$64.95
+25.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$78.59
+52.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$90.60
+75.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
10.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.7%
vs 5.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$47.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $78.59 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 81% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.67 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions