AlphaMadera

BLD TopBuild Corp.

$354.53

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80%

Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 7.8% above fair value

You pay $354.53

Bear $255.78

Fair $328.86

Bull $401.94

Bear $255.78 -27.9% $18.27 × 14x

Fair $328.86 -7.2% $18.27 × 18x

Bull $401.94 +13.4% $18.27 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

18.27$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($18.27)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (29 analysts) $430.50

Divergence from AlphaVal 24%

Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $18.27 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $328.86 per share.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing