BL
BlackLine, Inc.
$28.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.3% below fair value
You pay
$28.58
Bear
$30.26
Fair
$48.65
Bull
$69.03
Bear
$30.26
+5.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$48.65
+70.3%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$69.03
+141.6%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.2%
vs 14.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $48.65 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 378% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 52% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions