BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
$163.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 56.3% below fair value
You pay
$163.31
Bear
$244.20
Fair
$373.96
Bull
$515.48
Bear
$244.20
+49.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$373.96
+129.0%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$515.48
+215.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.1%
vs 14.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (71 analysts)
$233.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $373.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $233.30 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions