BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
$178.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.1% below fair value
You pay
$178.24
Bear
$188.28
Fair
$283.58
Bull
$386.10
Bear
$188.28
+5.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$283.58
+59.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$386.10
+116.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.1%
vs 13.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $230.65 from 71 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $283.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $230.65 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions