BKH Black Hills Corporation
$74.29
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 5.2% above fair value

You pay $74.29
Bear $61.77
Fair $70.60
Bull $79.42
Bear $61.77 -16.9% $3.99 × 14x P/E
Fair $70.60 -5.0% $3.99 × 16x P/E
Bull $79.42 +6.9% $3.99 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.60 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $91.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples