BKH
Black Hills Corporation
$76.63
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.3% above fair value
You pay
$76.63
Bear
$55.72
Fair
$63.68
Bull
$71.64
Bear
$55.72
-27.3%
$3.98 × 14x P/E
Fair
$63.68
-16.9%
$3.98 × 16x P/E
Bull
$71.64
-6.5%
$3.98 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
3.98$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$83.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.98, the base-case value is $63.68 per share. DDM cross-check: $59.78.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples