BKH
Black Hills Corporation
$74.29
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 5.2% above fair value
You pay
$74.29
Bear
$61.77
Fair
$70.60
Bull
$79.42
Bear
$61.77
-16.9%
$3.99 × 14x P/E
Fair
$70.60
-5.0%
$3.99 × 16x P/E
Bull
$79.42
+6.9%
$3.99 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $70.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $91.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples