BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
$40.77
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.3% below fair value
You pay
$40.77
Bear
$49.68
Fair
$62.10
Bull
$74.52
Bear
$49.68
+21.9%
$4.14 × 12x P/E
Fair
$62.10
+52.3%
$4.14 × 15x P/E
Bull
$74.52
+82.8%
$4.14 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.14$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$47.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.14, the base-case value is $62.10 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples