BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
$49.33
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.2% below fair value
You pay
$49.33
Bear
$47.66
Fair
$59.58
Bull
$71.49
Bear
$47.66
-3.4%
$4.14 × 12x P/E
Fair
$59.58
+20.8%
$4.14 × 15x P/E
Bull
$71.49
+44.9%
$4.14 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
11.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.58 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples