BKE
The Buckle, Inc.
$42.64
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.9% below fair value
You pay
$42.64
Bear
$46.66
Fair
$58.33
Bull
$69.99
Bear
$46.66
+9.4%
$4.14 × 12x P/E
Fair
$58.33
+36.8%
$4.14 × 15x P/E
Bull
$69.99
+64.1%
$4.14 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.00 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $58.33 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 106% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples