BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$60.13
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.8% above fair value
You pay
$60.13
Bear
$30.24
Fair
$36.72
Bull
$43.20
Bear
$30.24
-49.7%
$2.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$36.72
-38.9%
$2.16 × 17x P/E
Bull
$43.20
-28.2%
$2.16 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.16$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$55.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.16, the base-case value is $36.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples