BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$44.56
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.3% above fair value
You pay
$44.56
Bear
$31.30
Fair
$38.00
Bull
$44.71
Bear
$31.30
-29.8%
$2.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$38.00
-14.7%
$2.16 × 17x P/E
Bull
$44.71
+0.3%
$2.16 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $41.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples