BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$66.86
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 68.0% above fair value
You pay
$66.86
Bear
$32.78
Fair
$39.80
Bull
$46.83
Bear
$32.78
-51.0%
$2.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$39.80
-40.5%
$2.16 × 17x P/E
Bull
$46.83
-30.0%
$2.16 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.00 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.80 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples