BJRI
BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$56.51
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 53.9% above fair value
You pay
$56.51
Bear
$30.24
Fair
$36.72
Bull
$43.20
Bear
$30.24
-46.5%
$2.16 × 14x P/E
Fair
$36.72
-35.0%
$2.16 × 17x P/E
Bull
$43.20
-23.6%
$2.16 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
2.16$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
26.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$55.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
34%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.16, the base-case value is $36.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $55.50 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples