BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
$40.61
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.0% below fair value
You pay
$40.61
Bear
$55.55
Fair
$63.48
Bull
$71.41
Bear
$55.55
+36.8%
$2.85 × 21x P/E
Fair
$63.48
+56.3%
$2.85 × 24x P/E
Bull
$71.41
+75.9%
$2.85 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.48 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 34%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $48.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1387 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples