BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc
$41.38
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.7% below fair value
You pay
$41.38
Bear
$57.24
Fair
$65.42
Bull
$73.60
Bear
$57.24
+38.3%
$2.91 × 21x P/E
Fair
$65.42
+58.1%
$2.91 × 24x P/E
Bull
$73.60
+77.9%
$2.91 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.27 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $65.42 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 34%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $52.27 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 34% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1607 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples