BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc
$44.36
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 30.3% below fair value

You pay $44.36
Bear $55.73
Fair $63.69
Bull $71.65
Bear $55.73 +25.6% $2.86 × 21x P/E
Fair $63.69 +43.6% $2.86 × 24x P/E
Bull $71.65 +61.5% $2.86 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.5x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.65 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.69 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 34%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $48.65 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1425 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples