BILL
Bill.com Holdings, Inc.
$50.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 65.6% below fair value
You pay
$50.70
Bear
$98.23
Fair
$147.44
Bull
$200.42
Bear
$98.23
+93.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$147.44
+190.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$200.42
+295.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
9.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.0%
vs 13.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$56.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
162%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $147.44 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $56.33 (from 32 analysts). Our estimate is 162% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions