BIIB
Biogen Inc.
$208.92
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.1% above fair value
You pay
$208.92
Bear
$178.87
Fair
$208.67
Bull
$238.49
Bear
$178.87
-14.4%
$14.57 × 12x P/E
Fair
$208.67
-0.1%
$14.57 × 14x P/E
Bull
$238.49
+14.2%
$14.57 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $219.72 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $208.67 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 65%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples