BIIB
Biogen Inc.
$193.76
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.1% below fair value
You pay
$193.76
Bear
$176.88
Fair
$206.36
Bull
$235.84
Bear
$176.88
-8.7%
$14.57 × 12x P/E
Fair
$206.36
+6.5%
$14.57 × 14x P/E
Bull
$235.84
+21.7%
$14.57 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $212.00 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $206.36 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 65%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples