BIIB
Biogen Inc.
$220.83
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.7% above fair value
You pay
$220.83
Bear
$182.62
Fair
$213.05
Bull
$243.49
Bear
$182.62
-17.3%
$15.22 × 12x P/E
Fair
$213.05
-3.5%
$15.22 × 14x P/E
Bull
$243.49
+10.3%
$15.22 × 16x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.0x
15.22$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$244.93
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $15.22, the base-case value is $213.05 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 72%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples