BHR
Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.
$2.23
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 84.0% below fair value
You pay
$2.23
Bear
$11.51
Fair
$13.95
Bull
$16.39
Bear
$11.51
+416.3%
$1.02 FFO × 18x
Fair
$13.95
+525.7%
$1.02 FFO × 22x
Bull
$16.39
+635.0%
$1.02 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.02) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
2.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $2.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $13.95 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 9.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $3.73 (78% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $2.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 747% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify