BHR Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.
$2.49
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 84.0% below fair value

You pay $2.49
Bear $12.81
Fair $15.52
Bull $18.23
Bear $12.81 +414.3% $1.02 FFO × 18x
Fair $15.52 +523.2% $1.02 FFO × 22x
Bull $18.23 +632.1% $1.02 FFO × 26x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.02) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 2.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.83 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.52 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 8.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $3.73 (78% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $9.83 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 72% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify