BG
Bunge Global S.A.
$106.80
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.3% below fair value
You pay
$106.80
Bear
$97.44
Fair
$121.80
Bull
$146.16
Bear
$97.44
-8.8%
$10.51 × 9x P/E
Fair
$121.80
+14.0%
$10.51 × 12x P/E
Bull
$146.16
+36.9%
$10.51 × 14x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
11.6x
10.51$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$151.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $10.51, the base-case value is $121.80 per share. DDM cross-check: $69.69.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 114%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Dividend-based valuation: $69.69 (below our primary estimate by 43%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples