BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
$102.91
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 88.2% below fair value
You pay
$102.91
Bear
$869.24
Fair
$869.24
Bull
$928.96
Bear
$869.24
+744.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$869.24
+744.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$928.96
+802.7%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
1.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-31.3%
vs 3.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (37 analysts)
$116.55
Divergence from AlphaVal
646%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $869.24 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $116.55 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 646% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions