BF-B
Brown-Forman Corporation
$28.88
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.1% below fair value
You pay
$28.88
Bear
$27.54
Fair
$32.13
Bull
$36.72
Bear
$27.54
-4.6%
$1.53 × 18x P/E
Fair
$32.13
+11.3%
$1.53 × 21x P/E
Bull
$36.72
+27.1%
$1.53 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
1.53$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.9x
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.53, the base-case value is $32.13 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples