BEPC
Brookfield Renewable Corporation
$37.50
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 51.2% below fair value
You pay
$37.50
Bear
$62.85
Fair
$76.82
Bull
$90.79
Bear
$62.85
+67.6%
$2.55 × 25x P/E
Fair
$76.82
+104.9%
$2.55 × 30x P/E
Bull
$90.79
+142.1%
$2.55 × 36x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (30x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Applying a 30x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.55, the base-case value is $76.82 per share. DDM cross-check: $41.49.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $41.49 (below our primary estimate by 46%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples