BDX
Becton, Dickinson and Company
$191.75
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 119.3% above fair value
You pay
$191.75
Bear
$69.96
Fair
$87.45
Bull
$104.94
Bear
$69.96
-63.5%
$5.83 × 12x P/E
Fair
$87.45
-54.4%
$5.83 × 15x P/E
Bull
$104.94
-45.3%
$5.83 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
5.83$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
32.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (34 analysts)
$188.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
54%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.83, the base-case value is $87.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $104.65.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $188.33 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples