BDX
Becton, Dickinson and Company
$147.63
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 22.1% above fair value
You pay
$147.63
Bear
$96.73
Fair
$120.91
Bull
$145.09
Bear
$96.73
-34.5%
$6.57 × 12x P/E
Fair
$120.91
-18.1%
$6.57 × 15x P/E
Bull
$145.09
-1.7%
$6.57 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.19 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $173.19 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples