BDX
Becton, Dickinson and Company
$151.29
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 24.0% above fair value
You pay
$151.29
Bear
$97.64
Fair
$122.05
Bull
$146.46
Bear
$97.64
-35.5%
$6.57 × 12x P/E
Fair
$122.05
-19.3%
$6.57 × 15x P/E
Bull
$146.46
-3.2%
$6.57 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $177.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $177.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples