BDC
Belden Inc.
$106.96
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.4% above fair value
You pay
$106.96
Bear
$60.83
Fair
$90.32
Bull
$118.64
Bear
$60.83
-43.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$90.32
-15.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$118.64
+10.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
26.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.9%
vs 9.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $155.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $155.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions