BDC
Belden Inc.
$106.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.7% above fair value
You pay
$106.03
Bear
$60.16
Fair
$89.32
Bull
$117.33
Bear
$60.16
-43.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$89.32
-15.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$117.33
+10.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
26.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions