BDC
Belden Inc.
$122.28
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.9% above fair value
You pay
$122.28
Bear
$67.92
Fair
$97.12
Bull
$125.16
Bear
$67.92
-44.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$97.12
-20.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$125.16
+2.4%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 9.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$162.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $97.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $162.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions