BDC
Belden Inc.
$107.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.6% above fair value
You pay
$107.44
Bear
$67.92
Fair
$97.12
Bull
$125.16
Bear
$67.92
-36.8%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$97.12
-9.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$125.16
+16.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
21.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.2%
vs 9.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$155.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $97.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $155.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions