BCRX
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$7.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 71.2% below fair value
You pay
$7.88
Bear
$20.40
Fair
$27.32
Bull
$34.05
Bear
$20.40
+158.9%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$27.32
+246.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$34.05
+332.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
6.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-7.1%
vs 9.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $27.32 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 32% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions