BCRX
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$8.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.7% below fair value
You pay
$8.12
Bear
$20.63
Fair
$27.74
Bull
$34.68
Bear
$20.63
+154.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$27.74
+241.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$34.68
+327.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.8%
vs 9.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
46%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $27.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 32% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions