BCRX
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$8.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.9% below fair value
You pay
$8.29
Bear
$22.75
Fair
$32.99
Bull
$43.59
Bear
$22.75
+174.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$32.99
+298.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.59
+425.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
5.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.86 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.99 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.86 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 128% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions