BCRX
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$9.74
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.8% below fair value
You pay
$9.74
Bear
$18.23
Fair
$24.84
Bull
$31.34
Bear
$18.23
+87.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$24.84
+155.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$31.34
+221.7%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
8.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.1%
vs 10.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.00 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.84 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 32% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $20.00 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions