BCPC
Balchem Corp
$162.10
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 67.0% above fair value
You pay
$162.10
Bear
$77.65
Fair
$97.05
Bull
$116.46
Bear
$77.65
-52.1%
$5.15 × 12x P/E
Fair
$97.05
-40.1%
$5.15 × 15x P/E
Bull
$116.46
-28.2%
$5.15 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $175.50 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $175.50 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples