BCPC
Balchem Corporation
$161.75
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 71.4% above fair value
You pay
$161.75
Bear
$75.49
Fair
$94.35
Bull
$113.22
Bear
$75.49
-53.3%
$5.15 × 12x P/E
Fair
$94.35
-41.7%
$5.15 × 15x P/E
Bull
$113.22
-30.0%
$5.15 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $162.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $162.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples