BCPC
Balchem Corp
$170.63
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 138.7% above fair value
You pay
$170.63
Bear
$57.19
Fair
$71.49
Bull
$85.79
Bear
$57.19
-66.5%
$4.75 × 12x P/E
Fair
$71.49
-58.1%
$4.75 × 15x P/E
Bull
$85.79
-49.7%
$4.75 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.1x
4.75$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
35.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$215.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
67%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.75, the base-case value is $71.49 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $215.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples