BCO
The Brink's Company
$104.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 40.5% below fair value
You pay
$104.75
Bear
$129.81
Fair
$176.19
Bull
$218.59
Bear
$129.81
+23.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$176.19
+68.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$218.59
+108.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.5%
vs 7.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$163.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $176.19 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions