BCO
The Brink's Company
$123.19
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.3% below fair value
You pay
$123.19
Bear
$86.24
Fair
$123.57
Bull
$157.69
Bear
$86.24
-30.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$123.57
+0.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$157.69
+28.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.0%
vs 7.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $163.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $123.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $163.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions