BCML
BayCom Corp
$31.01
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.0% below fair value
You pay
$31.01
Bear
$25.52
Fair
$50.84
Bull
$66.04
Bear
$25.52
-17.7%
ROTCE 6.0% → 1.01x TBV
Fair
$50.84
+63.9%
ROTCE 8.0% → 2.02x TBV
Bull
$66.04
+113.0%
ROTCE 9.2% → 2.62x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.14x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly