BCML
BayCom Corp
$31.13
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 43.4% below fair value
You pay
$31.13
Bear
$27.61
Fair
$55.00
Bull
$71.44
Bear
$27.61
-11.3%
ROTCE 6.0% → 1.01x TBV
Fair
$55.00
+76.7%
ROTCE 8.0% → 2.02x TBV
Bull
$71.44
+129.5%
ROTCE 9.2% → 2.62x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
8.0%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (8.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.14x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$34.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
With ROTCE of 8.0% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.02x on $27.29 tangible book, implying $55.00 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly