BCC
Boise Cascade Company
$75.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.4% below fair value
You pay
$75.44
Bear
$178.60
Fair
$212.04
Bull
$241.45
Bear
$178.60
+136.7%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$212.04
+181.1%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$241.45
+220.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
5.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-8.9%
vs 5.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$91.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
132%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $212.04 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $91.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 132% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions