BCC
Boise Cascade Company
$76.46
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.3% below fair value
You pay
$76.46
Bear
$149.40
Fair
$192.40
Bull
$235.41
Bear
$149.40
+95.4%
$12.12 × 14x + net cash
Fair
$192.40
+151.6%
$12.12 × 18x + net cash
Bull
$235.41
+207.9%
$12.12 × 22x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($12.12)
Implied Market Multiple
6.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $192.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $94.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 130% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing