BBSI
Barrett Business Services, Inc.
$31.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 6.2% below fair value
You pay
$31.84
Bear
$28.60
Fair
$33.95
Bull
$38.81
Bear
$28.60
-10.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.95
+6.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.81
+21.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
6.0%
vs 7.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.95 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions