BBSI
Barrett Business Services, Inc.
$34.37
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.6% above fair value
You pay
$34.37
Bear
$28.22
Fair
$33.50
Bull
$38.30
Bear
$28.22
-17.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.50
-2.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$38.30
+11.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.5%
vs 7.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.50 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions