BBD
Banco Bradesco S.A.
$3.59
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.4% below fair value
You pay
$3.59
Bear
$8.62
Fair
$9.31
Bull
$9.31
Bear
$8.62
+140.0%
ROTCE 11.4% → 3.70x TBV
Fair
$9.31
+159.4%
ROTCE 15.2% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$9.31
+159.4%
ROTCE 17.5% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.2%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.27x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $3.20 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.31 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $2.75 (76% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $3.20 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 255% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1965 USD per BRL.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly