BB BlackBerry Limited
$8.54
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 10.6% above fair value

You pay $8.54
Bear $6.47
Fair $7.72
Bull $8.99
Bear $6.47 -24.2% $0.33 × 18x P/E
Fair $7.72 -9.6% $0.33 × 22x P/E
Bull $8.99 +5.3% $0.33 × 25x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.54 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.72 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 263%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.54 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples