BB
BlackBerry Limited
$9.43
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 387.3% above fair value
You pay
$9.43
Bear
$1.62
Fair
$1.93
Bull
$2.25
Bear
$1.62
-82.8%
$0.09 × 18x P/E
Fair
$1.93
-79.5%
$0.09 × 22x P/E
Bull
$2.25
-76.1%
$0.09 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
0.09$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
104.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$10.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
81%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.93 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $10.43 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples