BANF
BancFirst Corporation
$114.08
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 20.8% below fair value
You pay
$114.08
Bear
$94.37
Fair
$143.97
Bull
$173.73
Bear
$94.37
-17.3%
ROTCE 10.9% → 1.92x TBV
Fair
$143.97
+26.2%
ROTCE 14.6% → 2.93x TBV
Bull
$173.73
+52.3%
ROTCE 16.8% → 3.54x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.32x
Summary
With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.93x on $49.13 tangible book, implying $143.97 per share. DDM cross-check: $166.65.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly