BANF
BancFirst Corporation
$111.21
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 16.5% below fair value
You pay
$111.21
Bear
$87.29
Fair
$133.17
Bull
$160.69
Bear
$87.29
-21.5%
ROTCE 10.9% → 1.78x TBV
Fair
$133.17
+19.7%
ROTCE 14.6% → 2.71x TBV
Bull
$160.69
+44.5%
ROTCE 16.8% → 3.27x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
14.6%
7.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.26x
Summary
With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.71x on $49.11 tangible book, implying $133.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $117.18.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly