BAH
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation
$78.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.8% below fair value
You pay
$78.68
Bear
$98.61
Fair
$100.61
Bull
$107.78
Bear
$98.61
+25.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$100.61
+27.9%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$107.78
+37.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
10.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.20 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.61 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions