BAH
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation
$68.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.8% below fair value
You pay
$68.35
Bear
$90.55
Fair
$103.21
Bull
$116.53
Bear
$90.55
+32.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$103.21
+51.0%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$116.53
+70.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.4%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
10.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
0.1%
vs 4.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$88.29
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $103.21 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions