BA
The Boeing Company
$214.34
Distressed or Transitioning
72%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 96.6% above fair value
You pay
$214.34
Bear
$72.69
Fair
$109.04
Bull
$145.39
Bear
$72.69
-66.1%
EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair
$109.04
-49.1%
Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull
$145.39
-32.2%
Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
86.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $277.00 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.04 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $277.00 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case