AZZ
AZZ Inc.
$136.52
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 50.1% below fair value
You pay
$136.52
Bear
$213.14
Fair
$273.52
Bull
$329.60
Bear
$213.14
+56.1%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$273.52
+100.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$329.60
+141.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
9.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.9%
vs 7.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$150.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $273.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $150.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions