AZZ
AZZ Inc.
$132.36
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.7% below fair value
You pay
$132.36
Bear
$216.20
Fair
$280.08
Bull
$339.88
Bear
$216.20
+63.3%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$280.08
+111.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$339.88
+156.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
9.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.3%
vs 8.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$147.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
90%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $280.08 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $147.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 90% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions