AZTA
Azenta, Inc.
$30.85
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 142.7% above fair value
You pay
$30.85
Bear
$11.23
Fair
$12.71
Bull
$14.07
Bear
$11.23
-63.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$12.71
-58.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$14.07
-54.4%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
52.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.0%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
70%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.71 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 70% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions