AZTA
Azenta, Inc.
$37.30
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 178.9% above fair value
You pay
$37.30
Bear
$11.82
Fair
$13.38
Bull
$14.80
Bear
$11.82
-68.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$13.38
-64.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$14.80
-60.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
32%
Implied Market Multiple
62.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
26.2%
vs 7.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
69%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $13.38 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions