AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
$3,056.94
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.2% above fair value
You pay
$3,056.94
Bear
$2,135.70
Fair
$2,440.80
Bull
$2,745.90
Bear
$2,135.70
-30.1%
$152.55 × 14x P/E
Fair
$2,440.80
-20.2%
$152.55 × 16x P/E
Bull
$2,745.90
-10.2%
$152.55 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
152.55$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$3600.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $152.55, the base-case value is $2440.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $3600.25 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples