AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
$2,991.24
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 26.3% above fair value
You pay
$2,991.24
Bear
$2,072.46
Fair
$2,368.52
Bull
$2,664.59
Bear
$2,072.46
-30.7%
$144.87 × 14x P/E
Fair
$2,368.52
-20.8%
$144.87 × 16x P/E
Bull
$2,664.59
-10.9%
$144.87 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.3x
144.87$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$3854.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $144.87, the base-case value is $2368.52 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $3854.75 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples