AZN
AstraZeneca PLC
$187.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.0% above fair value
You pay
$187.03
Bear
$123.18
Fair
$179.84
Bull
$237.53
Bear
$123.18
-34.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$179.84
-3.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$237.53
+27.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
26.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $211.00 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $179.84 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions