AZN
AstraZeneca PLC
$169.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.6% below fair value
You pay
$169.64
Bear
$148.77
Fair
$219.19
Bull
$290.50
Bear
$148.77
-12.3%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$219.19
+29.2%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$290.50
+71.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.5%
vs 11.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $186.67 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $219.19 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions