AZN
AstraZeneca PLC
$163.95
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.9% above fair value
You pay
$163.95
Bear
$94.39
Fair
$137.91
Bull
$182.00
Bear
$94.39
-42.4%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$137.91
-15.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$182.00
+11.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.3%
vs 11.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (41 analysts)
$186.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $137.91 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $186.67 (from 41 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions