AYI
Acuity Brands, Inc.
$303.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.3% below fair value
You pay
$303.25
Bear
$312.25
Fair
$337.96
Bull
$369.81
Bear
$312.25
+3.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$337.96
+11.4%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$369.81
+21.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.1%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (4% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
12.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.6%
vs 4.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$373.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 4% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $337.96 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions